Annals of Educational Research and Reviews

Investigating the determinants of students drop out at Injibara University: The way to retain students

Eshetu Mebratie^1* and Tesfaye Nigussie^{2 1}Department of Public Administration and Development Management, University of Injibara, Injibara, Ethiopia
²Department of Marketing Management, University of Injibara, Injibara, Ethiopia
^*Correspondence: Eshetu Mebratie, Department of Public Administration and Development Management, University of Injibara, Injibara, Ethiopia,

Received: 16-Jun-2022, Manuscript No. AERR-22-66791; Editor assigned: 20-Jun-2022, Pre QC No. AERR-22-66791 (PQ); Reviewed: 04-Jul-2022, QC No. AERR-22-66791; Revised: 11-Jul-2022, Manuscript No. AERR-22-66791 (R); Published: 22-Jul-2022, DOI: 10.51268/2736-1853.22.10.064

Keywords

Determinants, drop out, logit model, weekend students.

Introduction

Education is a systematic process that seeks to produce well balanced individuals with the requisite knowledge, skills, values, aptitudes, and attitudes to become functional and productive citizens for national development; For these reasons many countries in the world, including Ethiopia, are motivated to improve their educational systems by introducing reforms and making projections based on the educational needs of the country (Namale, 2012; Namale, et’al, 2021). Education, as it was perceived by most scholars, is "The facilitation of learning, or the acquisition of information, skills, values, morals, beliefs, habits, and personal growth." In this regard, universities have become one of the most important institutions for the advancement of knowledge in the present world. In response to this trend, several African institutions, like Ethiopia's, which were previously known for their emphasis on teaching and learning, are now reorienting their missions to include research intensiveness as one of their goals (Semela et al., 2010; Yallew, 2020; Teferra, 2017).

Higher education in Ethiopia, according to some experts, is as old as the Obelisks of Axum and may be traced back to the Orthodox Church's monastic traditions, dating back to 300 AD. Not only priests and monks were educated in the church, but also public employees such as judges, governors, scribes, treasurers, and general administrators. When Islam arrived in Ethiopia in the 7^th century, it brought with it a two-tiered Quranic educational system with different basic and higher levels (Abebe, 1995; Kebede, 2010; Damtew, 2017; Teshome, 1990).However, in Ethiopia, higher education is in its modern form to be traced back to the opening of the Addis Ababa University College in 1950 (Asgedom et al., 2015). Between the 1950s and the last decade of the 20^th century, the country had only two public higher education institutions and no private higher education providers. Now days, Ethiopia opted to increase higher education based on the belief that knowledge is a tool for poverty eradication. According to MoSHE (2021), there are 45 public universities and a developing private sector in the country today. In acknowledgement of this essential idea, the second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II) established 11 new institutions; among those Injibara University is the one. Injibara University is located in Awi Zone, one of Ethiopia's Amhara National Regional State zones (www.IU.edu.et). For regular, summer, and weakened students, the University offers undergraduate and postgraduate (masters) programs in five colleges.

In this regard, the university inaugurated the weekend program in 2019 in eleven (11) departments with a total of 1120 students. In 2021, the number of departments with weekend students is raised to twelve (12) with a total student enrolment of 4765. Despite the fact that the enrolments rate is rapidly growing, the number of active students is declining over time; according to the Continuing and Distance Education coordinator office of Injibara University report (2021). As per this report, from the total number of 1120, 1629 and 2016, students registered in 2019/2020/2021 academic year; the number of drop out is 351,407 and 562 respectively. This data shows that the rate of student dropout is the major problem in Injibara University.

Because of university dropout is one of the factors that affects the accessibility and coverage of higher education, its measurement and study should be part of a continuous process of evaluating the educational system's efficiency, as well as the quality of the processes and programs offered by the university, in order to establish academic and administrative mechanisms to control this phenomenon.

Since a result, dropout has become a studied phenomenon, as it has a negative impact on the formal education system and has a negative impact on the multifaceted processes of society and it also poses a threat to Amartya Sen's idea; the more university-educated people there are the more freedom, ethical awareness, empathy, and better social ideals that promote a democratic society, according to this viewpoint’.

This study focused primarily on weekend undergraduate students due to the high level of dropout in this program. The rationale for not considering postgraduate weekend students was that, at the time when this investigation was conducted, they were only beginning their first year first semester class; hence the degree of dropout could not be ascertained at this time.

As a result, the purpose of this study is to determine the reasons for students' dropout at Injibara University using tuition fees, geographic location, job, quality of education, and war as independent variables and students' dropout as a dependent variable.

Materials and Methods

Research design and approach

The researchers adopted a co-relational research design to investigate the relationships between students drop out and the determining factors.

Population and sampling procedure

The participants in this study were students who were enrolled in Injibara University as weekend students from the year 2019-2021. As per the data obtained from Injibara University Registrar and Alumni Directorate, between these three consecutive academic years, there were a total of 4765 students enrolled for the weekend program and out of them a total number of 1320 students were dropped out (i.e. the number of active (not dropped) students were 3445).

In order to collect data, easily, from dropped out students multi-stage stratified sampling technique was used based on their woreda/town administration. Furthermore, snowball sampling approach was used to choose samples from each stratum.

The reason to use snowball sampling technique is that students who were in the same woreda, batch and department were known to each other. In this regard, the first sample participant would be chosen randomly from the sample frame in each woreda and town administration, batch, and department; the researchers would then contact the participant and ask him or her to refer other students in the respective locality, batch and department; as well as to distribute and return the questionnaires to the researchers.

On the other hand, data from active (not dropped) students in the university was collected using convenience sampling technique. The researchers obtained the students' information, dropped out students, from Injibara University's registrar and alumni directorate office in order to identify strata. Students from the following woredas and town administrations were found in the university's neighboring areas, according to the statistics.

So, using Yamane's formula, the researchers selected 366 samples from the total population (Yamane, 1967). At a confidence level of 95% and a precision level of 0.05, the sample size was estimated using Yamane’s sample size determination formula as follows:

The sample size to be drawn from drop out students and active students in Injibara University was calculated of this study as follows in Table 1.

Once the total sample size of dropped out and active students in the university was determined, the remaining activity is proportionately allocating the samples to be drawn from each strata for dropout students. From the total sample size of 103, the proportionate sample size for each woreda/town administration was clearly stated in the below (Table 2).

From the total sample size of this investigation, only 366 respondents were responded the questionnaire to the data collectors on time; the remaining 4 samples did not return the questionnaire to the data collector. Due to this, the response of those 4 participants was no included in the analysis and conclusion of this investigation.

Data collection methods

The researchers employed both primary and secondary data sources in this investigation. The primary data from respondents was obtained using a structured questionnaire. Likert scale was used to collect responses from the participant students. In the questionnaire, the value of 0=strongly disagree; 1=disagree; 2=neutral; 3=Agree, and 4=strongly disagree. Questions related to quality of education were adopted. Questions related to Tuition fee were adopted from (Diaz et al., 2016). The remaining question related to geographic distance, war, and job was developed by the researchers of this study. Secondary data was gathered from Injibara University's Continuing and distance education office, as well as the registrar and alumni directorate office, to supplement the primary data.

Methods of data analysis and presentation

The collected data was edited, classified and presented by using tables. Descriptive statistical analysis (count and percentage) was used to describe respondents’ demographic characteristics. Inferential statistics was used to analyze the responses of participants for major issues of the research. In this research, SPSS software version 23 was used. Furthermore, to analyze the collected data Logit model had used.

Ethical considerations

To protect the research subjects, the researchers noticed ethical concerns. Before respondents consented to engage in this study, the researchers sort their informed consent. The researchers also inform them that they have the only right to leave the study at any point during the data gathering process. Furthermore, the researchers guaranteed respondents of confidentiality and anonymity, as well as the fact that the information gathered was solely for academic purposes and would not be shared with anyone else.

Reliability and validity

The two that factors should be considered by researchers in order to judge the quality of the study, designing the study and analyzing results were validity and reliability. Reliability is fundamentally concerned with issues of consistency of measures. If a measurement device or procedure consistently assigns the same score to individuals or objects with equal values, the instrument is considered reliable (Lakshmi et al., 2013). In this study, internal reliability was considered. This was tested by using SPSS software, Cronbach’s alpha method. The result of Cronbach alpha for this study is 0.866.

Validity has been defined as “the extent to which a test measures what it claims to measure” (Gregory, 1992). According to S. Lakshmi and M.Akbar Mohideen (2013), “A valid instrument must be reliable, but a reliable instrument may not necessarily be valid”. In this research, content validity was verified. In this regard, because some of the questions were prepared by the researchers (self-designed), there may be a problem with content validity (i.e., to prevent ambiguity, misunderstanding, and poorly designed items). So, a pilot study with 30 respondents and peer review with expert was done in order to achieve content validity of this research.

Results

Results of respondents background data

As shown in Table 3, the majority of respondents (53.3%) were female, and the remaining percentages of participants were males. About 58.2% of the total respondents were under the age of 30, indicating that they were of legal age to pursue higher education, while the remaining 41.8% were over the age of 30. The majority of respondents were unemployed, according to the statistics in above (Table 3). In this regard, around 63.7% of the respondents in this survey were expected to be free job of pressure, which might be a role in their decision to leave their class. The remaining 36.3% of those surveyed are employed (i.e. they were part-time students).

Table 3 here above demonstrates that the bulk of the respondents (58.8%) came from Dangila town administration, Fagta Locoma, Ayo Guagussa, Chagni town administration, and Zigem, all of which are located far away from Injibara University. The remaining percentages of participants were from Injibara University's (relatively) neighbouring places. As it was seen in the same table, the three batches had nearly comparable numbers of participants in this study; however the number of participants grows as the acade mic year progresses (Figure 1).

Results of the model

The above table shows that, from the total number of participant students in this investigation, about (262) 71.6% were students who were active or non-dropped Injibara University weekend students but the remaining were already dropped out students from the University (Table 4).

According to the above table, Responses having the value of >2 indicates that participants of this study were agree about the question but when it is <2, it will show that respondents were disagreed about the issue, and when it is equals to 2, respondents were in different about the issue (Table 5).

The predicted probability of dropout can be calculated using these coefficients (the first number in the column, the coefficient for “Threshold” is the constant term in the model) (Table 6). For a given record, the predicted probability of dropout is:

F{(-0.628)+TF×0.130+S×0.233+D×0.180+T×(- 0.177)+F×0.121+A×(- 0.242)+M×0.161+AM×0.247+I×0.121+W×(- 0.151)} where ;

TF is tuition fee, S is sponsorship, D is Distance, T is Time, F is Feedback, A is Attention, M is Motivation, AM is Assessment Method, I is Infrastructure and W is War.

However, interpretation of the coefficients in probit regression is not as straightforward as the interpretations of coefficients in linear regression or logit regression. The increase in probability attributed to a one-unit increase in a given predictor is dependent both on the values of the other predictors and the starting value of the given predictors. For example, if we hold all factors constant at zero other than tuition fee , the one unit increase in TF from 2 to 3 has a different effect than the one unit increase from 3 to 4 (note that the probabilities do not change by a common difference or common factor):

F (-0.628+2 × 0.130) =-0.368

F (-0.628+3 × 0.130) =-0.238

F (-0.628+4 × 0.130) =-0.108

However, there are limited ways in which we can interpret the individual regression coefficients.

A positive coefficient means that an increase in the predictor leads to an increase in the predicted probability. A negative coefficient means that an increase in the predictor leads to a decrease in the predicted probability.

TF has a coefficient of 0.130. This suggests that raising the tuition charge increases the likelihood of students dropping out. The p-values of the coefficients, or the chance that given the rest of the predictors in the model, the null hypothesis for a particular predictor's regression coefficient is equal to zero. They are based on the predictors' Wald test statistics.

The p-value, which is defined as the chance that a specific Wald test statistic is as extreme as, or more so than, what has been observed under the null hypothesis. The Threshold has a Wald test statistic of 3.861 with a p-value of.0.049. We would reject the null hypothesis if our alpha level was set at 0.05.

The Wald test statistic for the predictor tuition Fee, sponsorship, Distance, Time, Feedback, Attention, Motivation, Assessment Method, Infrastructure, and War are 6.125, 13.864, 10.752, 7.529, 5.053, 12.987, 9.704, 16.885, 5.537, 7.154 with associated p-value of 0.013, 0.263, 0.001, 0.006, 0.125, 0.000, 0.392, 0.000, 0.683, 0.007 respectively (Table 7).

From the total of 10 independent variables in this study, the item saying Injibara University's tuition fees are reasonable and affordable; Injibara University is far away from my home; Because of my job, I don't have any free time to study; Teachers do not give individual attention to students in class; Exam questions and method of assessment is difficult to cope, and War affects my academic performance negatively have significant relationship with the dependent variable which is dropout. This means, at the 5% alpha level, there is statistically significant positive relation with the exception of time, attention, and war. That is to say, having more free time to study will reduce student dropout rates, as will having more attention paid to them by their teachers and the lack of war in the country.

Discussion

The majority of respondents (53.3%) were female, indicating that female involvement in Ethiopian higher education is rising over time;

this conclusion is consistent with Sidelil's findings (Sidelil, 2015). In terms of gender and dropping out of university, research findings were mixed. According to female students had a lower failure rate and a lower risk of dropping out of university than male students (Arias, 2013). However, the findings of a research contradict the aforementioned conclusion (Belloc et al., 2010; Stewart et al., 2015).

Most researches, agree that part-time students' job has a detrimental influence on their education to some level such as, (Daniels, 2016; Barone et al., 1993; Nasreen et al, 2013).

Regarding to the reasonableness and affordability of the tuition fee in the University, the result of this study shows as it is not affordable to students with a mean response rate of 1.8934 which mean that tuition fee might be one reason for students’ dropout decision. This result contradicts the research result of S. Bradley and Giuseppe M. (2015). In the research, it was concluded that when tuition fees go up, it actually decreases the risk of students droppingout. The higher the student fees, the less likely a student is to be at a university in the first place – but, once there, they are also less likely to leave without completing their course.

As it was indicated in Table 5 above, the response mean value of item saying Injibara University is far away from my home is 2.4208 indicating that participant students of this research were highly agreed about the distant location of the University to their residence and they are expected to travel long distance to attend their class every weekend. This finding is supported by the study conducted by Tsinat Yemane (2018). In the study, the researcher concluded that as the distance between the school and the students’ village apart too, the level of dropout will be high.

The data collected from, especially, dropped out weekend students of the University indicates that the distant location of the University makes them to pay additional costs like transportation cost, meal, and bed (the students cannot reach to class from their home; so that they are expected to rent bed rooms for weekend class in the town were the university is located). Additionally, students said that when they cannot get transportation, they are obliged to miss their class so they are forced to come to the nearby town (Injibara town) to not miss their class (exam) which in turn make them to pay extra bed and meal cost that is unaffordable to them. Due to this, they had decided to drop their class.

As it was explained in Table 5 above, about 63.7% of the respondents in this survey were unemployed (i.e. full-time students), and the remaining 36.3% of those surveyed are employed (i.e. they were part-time students). Especially, the data collected from those dropped out students, due to their job they cannot get enough time to study and complete class assignments on time, and this affect their academic performance and they are decided to drop their class. This is supported by Thomas (1993), who asserts that pat-time learners quit their class due to fieldworks; after a long day's work, tiredness is also a possibility (Thomas, 1993).

For the variable saying that exam questions and method of assessment is difficult to cope was responded by the participant students positively with the response mean value of 2.125. This result indicates that the method of evaluation is inappropriate and difficult to compete. This result is consistent with the study finding of (Hussain et al., 2010).

In this study the researchers concluded that about 57% of the total participant students stated that their major reason of drop out is due to inappropriate evaluation procedure. So, Out of the reasons for the dropout of Weekend students of Injibara University is the method of evaluation of the students through which exam questions are very difficult and most of the time they were out of the scope of the lesson covered and the status of the students. Regarding this issue, participant students indicated that some courses like Communicative English language skills, Logic and critical thinking, General psychology, and other too were very difficult to cope due to the exam question to those courses were very difficult; And make them to decide dropout.

The participant students of this research indicates that the outbreak of war in the country affect their academic performance with the response mean value of 2.1831.In this research, the independent variable called war was taken as a determinant for students level of dropout; which means that the presence of might affect the decision of students either to drop their class or complete even if it affects their grade. After the analysis, the result indicates that war affect student’s academic performance and also leads to drop their class (Zapata et al., 2007). This result is consistent with the research findings of (Zuilkowski et al., 2014). In the research, majority of school dropout students were due to the presence of war/conflict in the study areas.

Finding of the Study

The followings were the major finding of this investigation.

• The majority of the study's participants were female students, indicating that while women's involvement in higher education is increasing, dropout rates remain high.

• During the academic years 2020 and 2021, the rate of dropout is high, indicating that the COVID-19 epidemic and the onset of war in the country have had an influence on students' academic performance and choice to drop out.

• The amount of money paid in tuition and the percentage of students who drop out had a substantial positive relationship with the percentage of students who dropped out at the institution.

• Injibara University's geographical location is one of the most significant factors contributing to the university's high dropout rate.

• One of the reasons students considered dropping out was the evaluation system and exam questions.

• The outbreak of war in the country's northern Part (Tigray region) and other parts of the country too has a negative impact on students' academic performance and increases the likelihood of dropping out of university (Acosta, 2009).

• The inability of teachers to give individual consideration (attention) towards the academic performance of students leads to lower grade and finally to drop the class.

• Part-timer students show high probability of dropout than full-timers in the university.

Conclusion

As stated in the study's findings, geographical distance between Injibara University and participants (particularly dropped out) students is one reason contributing to the university's high dropout rate. As a result, the researchers for this study suggests that Injibara University, through its office of Continuing and Distant Education, open distance education branches (co-ordinating offices) in the locations where they are now located.

To lower dropout rates and retain students, the institution should build coordination centers to allow students to attend their classes. In doing so, the researchers suggests that, in addition to the main campus of the University, three continuing and distance education coordination centers be established at Chagni town administration (i.e., this center will cover areas of Chagni, Guangua, and Zigem); Gimjabet (i.e., this center will cover areas of Ankesha, Guagussa Shikudad, Gimjabet, and Ayo Guagussa); and Dangila (i.e. this center will cover areas of Dangila town, Dangila woreda, and Fagita Locoma).

As per the finding of this investigation, there was a significant relationship between the evaluation mechanisms and exam questions with the level of dropout in the university. So, the researcher’s recommendations that for a better academic performance of weekend students in the University, the exam questions should be consistent with the scope and content of the topic of the course the students were taking.

In doing so, the exam committee in each department must work effectively and responsibly in order to make the exam question to be a means to measure students’ academic knowledge in the targeted course not to revenge students (i.e. the researchers of this investigation also experiences such situation in which some teachers are happy when their students score low grade in their course) by lowering their mark score in the course. The another way to make the evaluation and exam question appropriate is that incentivizing (financially) the exam committee to get them committed and interested in their responsibility.

The other recommendation is to give personalized attention (consideration) to each student in the class. As much as possible, instructors in the classroom should offer each student an appropriate amount of attention. In general, when a student perceives that his or her teacher has paid close attention to his or her academic achievement, the student develops a strong interest in the subject. As a result, the university should provide continuous assessment and control systems, as well as pedagogical trainings for its staff, in order to make instructors more attentive to their students.

Recommendation for Further Research

Even though this study looked at the causes for students dropping out of university, it did not address the following topics. First, by using the aforementioned independent variables, this study focuses on the determinants of weekend students dropping out of university, allowing future researchers to explore the issue by integrating regular and summer students in the target population coverage. Second, this study focuses just on undergraduate students; however, future researchers might add postgraduate students to assess the university dropout component. Finally, the questionnaire technique of data collecting was employed in this study so that other researchers might use alternative data collection methods as much as feasible.

Funding

No funding was available for this research work.

Disclosure of Interest Statement

There is no conflict of interest for publishing this research work.

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