Abstract

Soheyla Rezazadeh Shamkhal and Ebrahim Shirmohammadi

The study evaluated the potential impacts of refuge requirements for Bt cotton in India on world cotton markets. The objective was accomplished by estimating regional cotton yield functions in the Indian fiber model, and connecting it with rest of the world fiber model. Results revealed that the refuge requirements have potential to impact world cotton markets; magnitudes of impacts are smaller, however. The world cotton trade would be lower, and the cotton prices would be higher under higher refuge requirements, and vice versa. As the refuge requirements for an insecticidal Bt technology depend on its replacement rate, the time spent in R&D and regulation of the technology has implications for Bt crops refuge requirements and world commodity markets.